Was Ron Paul's Fall in Iowa Due to the Marriage Issue?
Frederick Clarkson printable version print page     Bookmark and Share
Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 02:40:00 PM EST
Brian Brown  of the National Organization for Marriage thinks so -- and he is taking credit in a fundraising email (and blog post) for deflating the one-time Ron Paul surge.  He wanted to remind Iowa conservative Christians that an anti-abortion candidate is not necessarily also anti-marriage equality.  So NOM produced a pre-caucus TV ad that Joe Klein from Time among others thought was "very effective."   Brown claimed that in a state where anti-gay marriage forces removed three Justices from the Iowa Supreme Court for having voted for marriage equality, this was an issue about which GOP caucus voters cared.  

"If you don't follow politics all that closely," Brown wrote, "you might not know how close Ron Paul came to winning the Iowa caucuses."

Ron Paul was holding at a steady 16, 17, 18 points in Iowa polling, up until support for frontrunner Newt Gingrich collapsed. I started becoming concerned because I began receiving calls from many of the good people--including pastors--with whom we worked in the campaign to defeat Iowa's activist judges. These people, who opposed same-sex marriage, were searching for a candidate and were actually beginning to gravitate to Ron Paul. By mid-December, three separate Iowa polls were showing Ron Paul as the winner, with his poll numbers going as high as 28 percent of the vote.

Ron Paul, to his credit, has always been a stalwart pro-life vote, and at NOM we know from our past experience in other elections that faith-based voters who see a strong pro-life candidate often just assume he or she is good on marriage too.

In Paul's case that's just not true, and we had to let Iowa voters know the truth.

Ron Paul's a good man, but he's just wrong on marriage.

We put up a TV ad that Time's Joe Klein called "very effective"

Klein was right. It was a very effective ad. Combined with strategically-placed internet ads which drove voters to a website where they could view the ad, and the outreach with our newsletter (which reaches 12,000 Iowan households each week) and more than 580,000 phone calls we made to social conservative voters, we made sure evangelicals and others in Iowa who care about marriage were informed that Ron Paul's not with them.

Paul did end up with a respectable third place finish in Iowa, with 21 percent of the vote, but here's the kicker: That third-place finish by Ron Paul was largely fueled by the large turnout he got from non-Republican voters, a large plurality of whom went for Ron Paul.

Of course, anti-war and anti-drug war independents and Democrats did not go to the caucuses and change their registration to Republican because of Paul's views on marriage. (Even NOM's collection of video clips documenting Paul's views on marriage show that he is a mixed bag at best, who would leave policy up to the states.)

While there were certainly many factors involved, Ron Paul's fall (despite the crossover vote) and Santorum's rise does suggest that the marriage issue remains strong across a wide swath of the Republican conservative Christian electorate.




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and his association with the JBS, the Constitution Party, etc., to ever be comfortable with him. That's outside his views on deregulation of business. But if I were not informed on these subjects, all the anti-Paul ads put up by the right wingers would sure make me have a favorable opinion of him! The ads may come back to bite them.

by phatkhat on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 12:56:52 AM EST

and eat it, too.  I've been in South Carolina, where Paul is being touted as "the only true Christian conservative" and is running ads focused on his "protection of life."  Chuck Baldwin, the Constitution Party presidential candidate endorsed by Paul in 2008, is in a new ad supporting Paul.  Baldwin is simply identified as the pastor of Crossroad Baptist Church in Pensacola, Florida.  (No mention that Baldwin left there to to move to Montana as part of the Patriot movement.)

Baldwin introduces himself in an longer endorsement for Paul (on www.ronpaul.com) as chosen by Jerry Falwell to be executive director of the Moral Majority back in the 1970s. Baldwin points out that Paul introduced legislation that would have "ended Roe v. Wade" and is a supporter of the Defense of Marriage Act.  In S.C., Paul is being promoted as a hardcore Christian conservative.

by Rachel Tabachnick on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:37:32 AM EST

that Ron Paul would have to rely on a non-Republican, a party leader of another party at that, and a pastor from another state (whether FL or MT), to appear on his behalf in SC.

There is no perfect analogy here, but to suggest just how odd this is on its face, its as if during the Democratic primaries in 2008, Ralph Nader had appeared in TV ads for say, Dennis Kucinich in SC.  

I wonder whether the reason he picked Chuck Baldwin is because he couldn't find a sufficiently prominent local Christian conservative to appear on his behalf, whether Baldwin has some special pull in SC, or whether Paul is laying the groundwork for a CP run.

by Frederick Clarkson on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 01:06:39 PM EST
Parent



The recent Iowa caucus results have raised many questions, one of which is how much of an impact did the marriage issue have on Ron Paul's fall in the polls. With many of his rivals holding strong positions in favor of traditional marriage,  The Unicorn movie it seems plausible that the marriage issue may have hurt Ron Paul's chances in the eyes of some voters. It is worth considering whether this debate over marriage influenced the results, and if so, how much it may have impacted the outcome. No matter the result, it is clear that the marriage issue remains a contentious one in the US, and that the outcome of the Iowa caucus is likely to shape the future of this debate.

by isabelladom on Sun Mar 26, 2023 at 12:50:21 PM EST


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