"Optimism on both Sides of Gay Marriage Debate", but what about facts ?
Bruce Wilson printable version print page     Bookmark and Share
Tue Jul 18, 2006 at 11:36:34 AM EST
In Optimism on Both Sides of Gay-Marriage Debate :
State Votes Will Show Whether Bans Are Losing Steam or Gaining Ground
, T.R. Reid of The Washington Post covers the battles over legalizing or banning same sex marriage ongoing in many US states.

Writes Reid:

opponents of same-sex marriage -- who prefer to call the issue "protection of marriage" -- are confident these days....

yet, supporters of same-sex marriage -- who prefer to call the issue "marriage equality" -- are also optimistic as they look forward to this fall's campaigns. "Attitudes are changing, as people come to see this as a civil rights issue," said Brad Luna, of the Human Rights Campaign....

A nonpartisan poll in Wisconsin last month showed voters evenly split on the issue, with 49 percent favoring such a ban and 48 percent opposed....

Polling in Arizona and Colorado also suggests fairly close divisions....

Beyond that, efforts to put a ban on state ballots are starting to fall short, both in the legislatures and in citizens' initiatives. In eight states, including Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, proposals calling for a ballot referendum banning same-sex marriage failed to pass the legislature this year. In California and Florida, opponents of same-sex marriage were unable to collect enough signatures to put an initiative on the ballot this fall.

In Illinois, groups opposing same-sex marriage submitted 347,000 signatures for their ballot proposal, but volunteers who support the unions scrutinized every name and challenged so many that the State Board of Elections refused to certify the proposal. Opponents are appealing that ruling.

So, is the tide turning - as proponents of legal same sex marriage assert ? Or will bans on same sex marriage bew added to the state constitutions of yet more states ?

One aspect of this conflict has received almost no media notice whatsoever regardless of its centrality to the debate. As I've recently written here on Talk To Action, after two years of legal same sex marriage in Massachusetts the traditional family is doing better, perhaps, than anywhere in the US [ see : Christian Right Wrong On Gay Marriage in Massachusetts ]

Divorce rates are commonly used as a key measure of marital and family health, and Massachusetts divorce rate data from all of 2004 and the first 11 months of 2005 are now available.

Divorce rates in the US have been declining steadily since the the early 1980's.  Massachusetts has shared in the trend and traditionally has had a divorce rate considerably lower than the national average. In fact. for several years now the Commonwealth has had the lowest divorce rate of any state in the union.

In 2004 the Massachusetts divorce rate, at 2.2 per 1,000 residents per year, was considerably lower than the US national average rate for that year, 3.8 per 1,000. Indeed, it was lower than the national average rate for 1950 (2.6 per 1,000) and even approached the national rate of 1940 (2 per 1,000).

In 2003, total divorces in Massachusetts declined 2.1% relative to 2002. But in the first two years of legal same sex marriage in the Bay State, Massachusetts showed a more rapid decline and will very likely hold on to its title as the US state with the lowest divorce rate in the nation. The field is hotly contested -- divorce rates have fallen dramatically in the last few decades.

The institution of marriage in Massachusetts, as measured by the rate of divorce, has not been healthier in at least half  a century regardless of dire predictions of Christian Right leaders and Catholic Bishops.  But the states that have taken aggressive action against same sex marriage, have not done nearly as well during the two year period of legal same sex marriage in Massachusetts.

The preliminary data  from 2004 and the first 11 months of 2005 -- from the 17 US states which have provided data on divorce for 2004 and 2005 and whose voters also passed state constitutional amendents prohibiting same sex marriage --  presents a striking picture : the group of US states arguably most hostile to divorce, those which have passed both state laws and also state constitutional amendments prohibiting same sex marriage, lag dramatically in terms of divorce rate improvement when compared to same sex marriage friendly states.

Among those US states that have no laws on the books specifically prohibiting same sex marriage or civil unions -- WY, NM, NY, MA, RI, CT, NJ, MD, VT -- the average divorce rate drop ( unadjusted for population changes ) was -8.74%. No states in this group had divorce rate increases in 2004 and 2005.

Among those US states that are most opposed to same sex marriage which have also provided divorce data for the time period -- ( alaska ? )  AR, KS, KY, MI, MS, MO, NE, NV, ND, OH, OK, OR, UT, TX -- the average divorce rate ( unadjusted for population changes ) for 2004 and the first 11 months of 2005 increased 1.75%. This group contains 4 of the 5 states with the highest divorce rate increases in the US during 2004 and the  first 11 months of 2005.

( states in the second group may have on average a higher population growth rate but that will not change the almost 10.5% gap between the two groups more than a few percentage points )

Meanwhile, the one state in the United States Of America that has legal same sex marriage, Massachusetts, will be among the top ten states - or better - with the largest drop in divorce rates in America during 2004 and 2005.

[ excerpt from Christian Right Wrong On Gay Marriage In Massachusetts ]




Display:
Many traditional Americans hate the idea that a gay partnership might be anything like their own marriages.

So, we need to say, "Partnership" or "Union" or anything other than "Marriage."  And we need to stress the legal aspect of it, rather than the spiritual or family connotations.

The Gay Marriage movement has played right into the hands of Carl Rove and G.W. Bush, mostly because they have insisted on using the M-word.

by Tom Neely on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:56:41 AM EST



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